Dampak faktor ekonomi dan kebijakan perdagangan terhadap ekspor Indonesia di 10 negara tujuan utama
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53088/jerps.v5i1.1644Keywords:
Fixed Effect Model, Ekspor, Angkatan Kerja, Ekonomi Digital, Pendapatan per Kapita, Penanaman Modal AsingAbstract
This study analyzes the factors that influence Indonesia’s exports to 10 destination countries, namely China, USA, Japan, India, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Rep. Korea, Vietnam, and the Netherlands, during 2018-2022 using a panel data regression model. The variables used are the number of workforce, digital economy, per capita income, and foreign investment as independent variables. At the same time, total exports are the dependent variable. The results of the analysis show that the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) is the best, where per capita income, foreign investment, and exchange rates do not have a significant effect on exports. This study found that the workforce and digital economy positively affect Indonesia’s exports. Countries with a skilled workforce and the application of digital technology encourage increased exports through increased productivity and operational efficiency. The existence of Indonesian economic policies that emphasize the development of workforce quality and the adoption of digital technology can provide insights that can be realized in activities. Implications provide insight into creating digital infrastructure from various parties that can collaborate to create a digital infrastructure for exports.
References
Abbey, E. N., Gyeke-Dako, A., Oduro, A. D., Turkson, E., & Baffour, P. T. (2017). The Employment Generating Effects of Exporting: Firm Level Evidence of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Ghana. Swiss Programme For Research on Global Issues For Development, 02, 1–30.
Ahmad, I. (2022). Export Performance of South Asia:Trade Potential, Supply Capacity, and Global Marker Access. Social Science Research Network.
Al-Badrany, A. S. S., & Al-Khatib, R. J. S. A.-D. (2023). Analyzing and Measuring the Impact of the Digital Economy on International Trade, the Case of Jordan for the Period (1990-2020). Integrated Journal for Research in Arts and Humanities, 3(2), 59–66. https://doi.org/10.55544/ijrah.3.3.11 DOI: https://doi.org/10.55544/ijrah.3.3.11
Alexander, P., & Reza, A. (2022). Exports and the Exchange Rate: A General Equilibrium Perspective. Bank of Canada, 18(4). https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2022-18
Andriansyah, U., Maharani, R. S. I., Az-Zahra, R., Herlan, M. C., Arbain, N., & Budiasih. (2023). Impact Analysis of Export Policies on GDP, Unemployment, and Inflation in Indonesia. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 1, 697–704. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1773 DOI: https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1773
Arfiani, I. S. (2019). Analisis Empiris Hubungan antara Ekspor, Impor, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 17(2), 81–98. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v17i2.9485 DOI: https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v17i2.9485
Aryani, Y., Andari, W., & Suhindarto, S. (2020). Pengaruh Teknologi Informasi dan E-Commerce terhadap Perdagangan Indonesia ke Negara ASEAN. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 9(1), 53–66. https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v9i1.30 DOI: https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v9i1.30
Azaria, L. A., & Fauziah, S. (2023). Strategi Pengembangan Pasar Ekspor Bagi UMKM Melalui Pemanfaatan Teknologi Digital. Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat, 2(2), 77–82. https://doi.org/10.55606/jpkm.v2i2.147 DOI: https://doi.org/10.55606/jpkm.v2i2.147
Bank Indonesia. (2025). Kurs Transaksi Bank Indonesia. BI.
Basilgan, M., & Akman, A. S. (2019). An empirical analysis on the impact of the foreign direct investments on export performance: Turkey case. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 11(2), 89–105. https://doi.org/10.34109/IJEFS.201911206 DOI: https://doi.org/10.34109/ijefs.201911206
Bintoro, C. S. (2022). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Investasi Asing Langsung Di Indonesia. Jurnal Economina, 1(3), 547–562. https://doi.org/10.55681/economina.v1i3.131 DOI: https://doi.org/10.55681/economina.v1i3.131
Calal, M. H., Ilham, K. M., Vaqif, N. E., Calal, Z. E., & Mardan, T. G. (2023). The role of the Foreign Direct Investment inflows on export in Azerbaijan: An ARDL approach. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 15(2), 160–172. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art4
Cali, M., & Hollweg, C. H. (2017). How Much Labor Do South African Exports Contain? Policy Research Working Paper, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8037 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8037
Chauhan, V. (2020). Relationship Between Exports and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). International Journal of Creative Research Thoughts (IJCRT), 8(4), 2697–2702.
Christianingtyas, R. D., Kurniawan, M., & Adi, L. (2024). Pengaruh GDP dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Ekspor di Indonesia. Media Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan (MedREP), 1(3), 372–379.
Customs Trade Academy. (2023a). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Terhadap Ekspor dan Impor. Customs Trade Academy.
Customs Trade Academy. (2023b). Transformasi Digital dalam Perdagangan Ekspor Impor. Customs Trade Academy.
Ding, Y., Zhang, H., & Tang, S. (2021). How does the digital economy affect the domestic value-added rate of Chinese exports? Journal of Global Information Management, 29(5), 71–85. https://doi.org/10.4018/JGIM.20210901.oa5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4018/JGIM.20210901.oa5
Fauzi, F., & Suhaidi, M. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor, Tenaga Kerja dan Investasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia dalam Perspektif Ekonomi Islam Tahun 2010-2019. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Islam, 8(3), 2802. https://doi.org/10.29040/jiei.v8i3.6770 DOI: https://doi.org/10.29040/jiei.v8i3.6770
Ginting, A. M. (2013). Pengaruh nilai tukar terhadap ekspor Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 7(1), 1–18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v11i1.185
Hanif, N., & Taufiq, M. (2023). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Volume Produksi, Hba, Dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Nilai Ekspor Batubara Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan STIE Muhammadiyah Palopo, 9(1), 267–280. https://doi.org/10.35906/jep.v9i1.1512 DOI: https://doi.org/10.35906/jep.v9i1.1512
Harahap, L. M., Pasaribu, R., Rahma, Z., Chintia, A., & Manurung, L. (2025). Perkembangan Ekonomi Digital dan Dampaknya Terhadap Ketenagakerjaan Di Indonesia. Ekoman: Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 3(1), 51–70.
Hasmarini, M. I., & Murtiningsih, D. (2003). Analisis Kausalitas Ekspor Non Migas Dengan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Menggunakan Metode Final Prediction Error. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 4(2), 147–161. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v4i2.4025 DOI: https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v4i2.4025
Heckscher, E., & Ohlin, B. (1933). Interregional and International Trade. Harvard University Press.
Henderi, Mustofa, K. I., Lutfiani, N., & Savitri, A. N. (2024). Kemajuan Ekonomi Digital dan Perannya dalam Membentuk Dinamika Perdagangan Internasional Modern. ADI Bisnis Digital Interdisiplin (ABDI Jurnal), 5(2), 17–24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.34306/abdi.v5i2.1147
Husain, D., Sulistyono, B., Udjianto, D. W., & Hidayat, P. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh PDB Iran, Kurs Dolar AS dan Inflasi Indonesia terhadap Nilai Ekspor Indonesia ke Iran Periode 2006.1-2017.4. Jurnal ICMES, 5(1), 43–68. https://doi.org/10.35748/jurnalicmes.v5i1.104 DOI: https://doi.org/10.35748/jurnalicmes.v5i1.104
Janardana, A. (2017). Pengaruh investasi modal manusia dan produktivitas tenaga kerja terhadap ekspor barang dan jasa di Indonesia. Universitas Katolik Parahyangan.
Kahfi, A. S. (2016). Determinants of Indonesia’S Exports of Manufactured Products: a Panel Data Analysis. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 10(2), 187–202. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v10i2.54
Kamila, E. R., Andini, A. I. X., & Azzahra, T. (2025). Transformasi Digital dan Pertumbuhan E-Commerce : Dampak , Peluang , dan Tantangan di Era Modern. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 3(2), 141–145. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61722/jiem.v3i2.3810
Karimov, M. (2020). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Trade (Export and Import) in Turkey. European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 6(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.26417/ejis-2019.v5i1-273 DOI: https://doi.org/10.26417/ejis.v5i1.p6-17
Kastratović, R. (2020). The impact of foreign direct investment on host country exports: A meta-analysis. World Economy, 43(12), 3142–3183. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13011
Kementerian Perdagangan RI. (2019). Kemendag Dorong Pemanfaatan Teknologi Digital untuk Ekspor melalui Niaga-El. Kementerian Perdagangan RI.
Kumbayana, I. G. B., & Swara, W. Y. (2015). Pengaruh Jumlah Produksi, Harga Ekspor, dan Kurs Dollar Amerika Serikat terhadap Volume Ekspor Batubara Indonesia Tahun 1992-2012. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana, 4(2), 90–95.
Li, H., Han, J., & Xu, Y. (2023). The effect of the digital economy on services exports competitiveness and ternary margins. Telecommunications Policy, 47(7). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2023.102596 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2023.102596
Lin, C. F. (2016). Does Chinese OFDI really promote export? China Finance and Economic Review, 4(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40589-016-0037-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40589-016-0037-8
Lubis, A. D. (2010). Analisis Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Kinerja Ekspor Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 4(1), 1–14.
Mitic, B., & Ivić, M. (2016). the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Export Performance: Case of European Transition Economies. Independent Journal of Management & Production, 7(3), 771–785. https://doi.org/10.14807/ijmp.v7i3.440 DOI: https://doi.org/10.14807/ijmp.v7i3.440
Mulliqi, A., Adnett, N., & Hisarciklilar, M. (2019). Human capital and exports: A micro-level analysis of transition countries. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 28(7), 775–800. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2019.1603319 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2019.1603319
Munarti, M., Sarfiah, S. N., & Septiani, Y. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, dan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Terhadap Ekspor Indonesia Tahun 1990-2018. DINAMIC: Directory Journal of Economic, 3(2), 423–436. https://doi.org/10.31002/dinamic.v3i2.2688
Mustika, C., & Achmad, E. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Tenaga Kerja terhadap Ekspor Indonesia dan Malaysia ke China. Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika, 16(2), 379–390. https://doi.org/10.22437/jpe.v16i2.12660 DOI: https://doi.org/10.22437/jpe.v16i2.12660
Nugraheni, P. P., Kumaat, R. J., & Mandeij, D. (2021). Analisis Determinan Ekspor Sulawesi Utara ke Negara-Negara Tujuan Ekspor Periode 2012 – 2018. Jurnal EMBA: : Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 9(2), 176–188. https://doi.org/10.35794/emba.v9i2.33335
Nwanna, G. (1986). The contribution of foreign direct investment to exports - An empirical study of 23 LDCs. Intereconomics, 21(6), 277–282. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02925173 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02925173
Oluyemi, O., & Isaac, D. E. (2017). The Effect of Exchange Rate on Imports and Exports in Nigeria from January 1996 to June 2015. International Journal of Economics and Business Management, 3(2), 65–77.
Pamornmast, C., Jermsittiparsert, K., & Sriyakul, T. (2013). Exchange Rate and Country’s Export Competitiveness: An Empirical Discourse Analysis. Asian Social Science, 9(13). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5539/ass.v9n13p147
Pratama, D., Suharyono, & Yulianto, E. (2016). Analisis Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Produksi Batubara, Permintaan Batubara Dalam Negeri dan Harga Batubara Acuan Terhadap Volume Ekspor Batubara Indonesia (Studi Pada Ekspor Batubara Indonesia Tahun 2005-2014). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis (JAB), 33(2), 145–153.
Pratiwi, I. A. C., & Utama, M. S. (2016). Pengaruh Tingkat Pendidikan, Tenaga Kerja, Investasi dan Ekspor terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. E-Jurnal EP Unud, 11(7), 1–23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24843/EEP.2022.v11.i07.p15
Pratomo, G., & Saputra, O. C. C. (2022). Analisis Determinan Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia Pada Negara Asia-6 Tahun 2011-2020. Economie: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 4(1), 97–107. https://doi.org/10.30742/economie.v4i1.2463 DOI: https://doi.org/10.30742/economie.v4i1.2463
Purba, D. S., Permatasari, P. D., Tanjung, N., Fitriani, R., & Wulandari, S. (2025). Analisis Perkembangan Ekonomi Digital dalam Meningkatkan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Masharif Al-Syariah: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syariah, 10(204), 126–139.
Purba, J. H. V, & Magdalena, A. (2017). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Terhadap Ekspor Dan Dampaknya Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. DeReMa Jurnal Manajemen, 12(2), 285–295. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19166/derema.v12i2.500
Puspitasari, R. (2022). The Effect of Labor Force, Exports and Government Expenditures on GDP. Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics, 5(3), 286–294. https://doi.org/10.15294/efficient.v5i3.54959 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15294/efficient.v5i3.54959
Puspitasari, W. K., & Nugraha, H. (2025). Pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing , Indeks Harga Konsumen , dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Nilai Ekspor di 5 Negara Asia Tenggara Periode Sebelum dan Pasca Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Media Wahana Ekonomika, 22(1), 122–135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31851/jmwe.v22i1.18185
Ricardo, D. (1817). On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. Jhon Murray.
Ruslan, D., Hutabarat, F. B., Handani, T., & Angelia, T. (2024). Pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment dan Tenaga Kerja Terhadap Kinerja Ekspor Industri: Studi Kasus Malaysia. Jurnal Masharif Al-Syariah: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syariah, 9(204), 3609–3621. https://doi.org/10.30651/jms.v9i5.24667
Saputri, A., Suryani, S., & Wibowo, R. (2024). Peluang dan tantangan ekspor dan impor di era globalisasi. Jurnal Ekonomi Global, 12(3), 103–118. https://doi.org/10.36272/jes.v13i2.340 DOI: https://doi.org/10.36272/jes.v13i2.340
Sari, N. P. I. A. I. P., & Marhaeni, A. A. I. N. (2015). Pengaruh Modal Kerja, Jumlah Tujuan Negara, Jumlah Tenaga Kerja dan Kurs Dollar Amerika terhadap Nilai Ekspor Kerajinan Bali di Pasar Internasional. E-?‐Jurnal EP Unud, 4(9), 998–1017.
Sasahara, A. (2019). Explaining the employment effect of exports: Value-added content matters. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 52, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2019.02.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2019.02.004
Simatupang, F., & Marselina, M. (2023). Economic Growth: Can be Influenced by Exports, Inflation, and Government Expenditure on ASEAN-7 Countries during the AFTA Period? Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences, 7(2), 127–146. https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v7i2.14819 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v7i2.14819
Taglioni, D. (2018). Exchange Rates and the Extensive Margin of Exports. World Bank, 1(2), 1–36.
Tandogan, D. (2019). the Impact of Export on Employment: Panel Data Analysis for Regional Base in Turkey. Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(18), 799–814. https://doi.org/10.29029/busbed.559856 DOI: https://doi.org/10.29029/busbed.559856
Taspinar, A. (2020). Causal Relationship between export and economic growth : The Poland and Sweden Case. Hogskolan i Halmstad, 1(1), 1–10.
Tilaar, A. F. D. (2012). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Perusahaan Yang Mempengaruhi Kinerja Ekspor (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Ekspor Di Provinsi Lampung Model Komparasi). GEMA : Jurnal Gentiaras Manajemen Dan Akuntansi, 4(2), 73–86.
Tondolambung, C. R., J.Kumaat, R., & Mandeij, D. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Kurs dan Penanaman Modal Asing Terhadap Ekspor Sektor Industri Indonesia Periode 2000 - 2019. Jurnal Berkala Ilimiah Efisiensi, 21(06), 82–91.
UNCTAD. (2025). Digitally Deliverable Services. UNCTADstat.
United Nations Statistics Division. (2025). Export. UN Comtrade TradeFlow.
Wang, F., Guo, B., Wang, Z., & Wu, Y. (2023). The impact of digital economy on the export competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 20(4), 7253–7272. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023314 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023314
Wigiutami, R., & Fisabilillah, L. W. P. (2023). Pengaruh Ekspor, Penanaman Modal Asing, dan Utang Luar Negeri terhadap PDB Indonesia. INDEPENDENT : Journal Of Economics, 3(2022), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.26740/independent.v2n3.p74-88 DOI: https://doi.org/10.26740/independent.v2n3.p74-88
World Bank. (2025a). Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$). World Bank Group.
World Bank. (2025b). GDP per capita (current US$). World Bank Group.
World Bank. (2025c). Labor force, total. World Bank Group.
Xu, Q. (2023). The mediating effect of digital economy on international trade Evidence from China. SHS Web of Conferences, 165, 02014. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202316502014 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202316502014
Zhang, L., Pan, A., Feng, S., & Qin, Y. (2022). Digital Economy, Technological Progress, and City Export Trade. PLoS ONE, 17(6 June), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0269314 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0269314
Zhu, Q., Yu, H., & Wan, Z. (2024). Can digital economy promote urban export sophistication? Evidence from China. PLoS ONE, 19(11), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308285 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308285
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Moris Facrudin, Didit Purnomo

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright @2021. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/)
Journal of Economics and Policy Studies is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Most read articles by the same author(s)
- Didit Purnomo, Nando Savikri, Pengaruh luas panen, produktivitas dan harga tanaman tebu terhadap kesejahteraan hidup petani tebu di Indonesia , Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies: Vol. 1 No. 2 (2021): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
- Wahid Fahmiza Azhari, Didit Purnomo, Analisis input – output: Dampak sektor pertanian terhadap perekonomian, pendapatan rumah tangga, dan kesesempatan kerja , Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies: Vol. 2 No. 3 (2022): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
- Reja Ale Jarwo, Didit Purnomo, Analisis pengaruh perang dagang AS-China bagi kondisi ekonomi ASEAN-4 periode 2017-2020 , Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies: Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
- Didit Purnomo, Mahanara Puja Kusuma, Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produksi singkong di Kota Salatiga , Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies: Vol. 2 No. 1 (2022): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
- Devinna Putri Vania Kusuma, Didit Purnomo, Analisis pengaruh variabel makroekonomi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia tahun 2017-2022 , Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies: Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
- Refly Firmansyah, Didit Purnomo, Determinants of women’s labor participation rate: Evidence in ASEAN , Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies: Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
- Salma Fitri Ayudita, Didit Purnomo, Peran penyerapan tenaga kerja, ekspor, dan pendidikan dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi di Jawa Tengah , Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies: Vol. 4 No. 3 (2024): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
- Alfida Nizar Amalia, Didit Purnomo, Analisis faktor-faktor produksi pengusaha genteng di Desa Kendal Kecamatan Girimarto Kabupaten Wonogiri , Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies: Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies