Kinerja pasar saham ASEAN: Peran makroekonomi dan kualitas institusi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53088/jerps.v6i2.3391Keywords:
Stock Market Performance, Macroeconomics, Institutional Quality, ARDL PanelAbstract
This study analyzes the effects of economic growth, monetary policy, and exchange rates on stock market performance and examines the moderating role of institutional quality in ASEAN countries. This study uses panel data and applies the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) approach to identify short-run and long-run relationships. The results show that in both the short and long term, economic growth and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on stock market performance. In contrast, monetary policy has a negative and significant effect, with a stronger impact in the long term. Institutional quality significantly moderates these relationships. However, the direction varies across time periods: in the short run, institutional quality amplifies the positive effects of economic growth and the exchange rate while also amplifying the negative effect of monetary policy; in the long run, institutional quality actually weakens the effects of economic growth and monetary policy but continues to amplify the effect of the exchange rate. This study provides policy recommendations to strengthen institutional governance and macroeconomic stability in the ASEAN countries covered in this study to support sustainable stock market growth.
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