Dampak faktor-faktor makroekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran di Provinsi Bali tahun 2020-2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53088/jerps.v6i1.3081Keywords:
Labor Force, Open Unemployment, Gross Regional Domestic Product, Minimum WageAbstract
Open unemployment remains a major challenge in regional economic development, particularly in Bali Province, which heavily depends on the service and tourism sectors. This study aims to analyze the impact of Gross Regional Domestic Product, Minimum Wage by Regency/City, and Labor Force Participation Rate on the open unemployment rate in regencies/cities of Bali Province during the period 2020–2024. The study employs a quantitative, panel-data regression approach using secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency. The results show that all variables have a significant effect on the open unemployment rate simultaneously. Partially, Gross Regional Domestic Product has a negative but insignificant relationship, while the Minimum Wage by Regency/City has a negative and significant effect. The Labor Force Participation Rate also has a negative but insignificant effect. These findings indicate that economic growth in Bali has not been fully inclusive in generating employment, while minimum wage policies and increased labor force participation help reduce unemployment. The implications highlight the importance of policies that promote more inclusive economic growth, strengthen labor-intensive sectors, and improve workforce quality to support sustainable employment absorption.
References
Agustin, L. (2022). Pengaruh Pengangguran, Ipm, Dan Bantuan Sosial Terhadap Kemiskinan Di Provinsi Jawa Timur. EKONIKA Jurnal Ekonomi Universitas Kadiri, 7(2), 262. https://doi.org/10.30737/ekonika.v7i2.2221
Ahmaddien, I., & Sa’dia, N. H. (2020). Pengaruh Kebijakan Upah Minimum Terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Perempuan di Indonesia. Komitmen Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 1(1), 22. https://doi.org/10.15575/jim.v1i1.8286
Ajith, M. M., Lux, A., Bentley, T., & Striepe, M. (2024). Adaptive crisis management at the operational level: Responses to COVID-19 in the Australian resources sector. Journal of Management & Organization, 31(4), 1909. https://doi.org/10.1017/jmo.2024.62
Andika, G., & Arsyad, L. (2023). Prioritized Mapping in Bali: Multi-View Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (MVHAC) Approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 16(1), 67. https://doi.org/10.24843/jekt.2023.v16.i01.p05
Anward, A. A., & Adi, I. R. (2024). Enhancing Target Accuracy: Insights into the Cash Social Assistance Program. Khazanah Sosial, 6(2), 208. https://doi.org/10.15575/ks.v6i2.33940
Arif, M., Rosni, R., Islami, Z. R., & Rahmadi, M. T. (2021). The Analysis of The Impact Of Working-Age Population On Indonesian Labour. Jurnal Geografi, 13(1), 97. https://doi.org/10.24114/jg.v13i1.21145
Asmara, G. D., & Saleh, R. (2024). Determinants of Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia. Widya Cipta - Jurnal Sekretari Dan Manajemen, 8(2), 102. https://doi.org/10.31294/widyacipta.v8i2.21753
Azaluddin, A., & Hanifa, L. (2021). Effect of Inflation and Economic Growth on The Rate of Unemployment. Sang Pencerah Jurnal Ilmiah Universitas Muhammadiyah Buton, 7(4), 609. https://doi.org/10.35326/pencerah.v7i4.1559
Baihawafi, M., & Sebayang, A. F. (2023). Pengaruh Upah Minimum, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia dan Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Pengangguran Terbuka. Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 39. https://doi.org/10.29313/jrieb.v3i1.1911
Bewley, T. F. (2004). Fairness, Reciprocity, and Wage Rigidity. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5241480
Dewa, P., Yudi, P., Wedana, G., & Made, S. (2023). Eurasia Economics & Business, 72(6). https://doi.org/10.18551/econeurasia.2023-06
Diartho, H. C., & Hanuraga, M. (2018). Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Sektor Konstruksi di Indonesia (Studi pada 6 Provinsi di Jawa). Media Trend, 13(2), 241. https://doi.org/10.21107/mediatrend.v13i2.4365
Dickens, W. T., & Katz, L. (1987). Inter-Industry Wage Differences and Theories of Wage Determination. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2271
Effendy, R. S. (2019). Pengaruh Upah Minimum Terhadap Pengurangan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Di Indonesia. Fokus Ekonomi Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi, 14(1), 115. https://doi.org/10.34152/fe.14.1.115-124
Efrianti, R., Marwa, T., Tarmizi, N., & Yuliana, S. (2018). Growth, Unemployment and Its Implication on Poverty: Empirical Study In Districts/Cities Of South Sumatera Province. Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(4), 27. https://doi.org/10.15604/ejef.2018.06.04.003
Elpisah, E., Suarlin, S., & Yahya, M. (2021). Klassen Typology and Williamson Index to Measure Macroeconomics in South Sulawesi Province. Golden Ratio of Social Science and Education, 1(1), 37. https://doi.org/10.52970/grsse.v1i1.109
Fernandus, A. Y. (2018). Determinan Kesempatan Kerja Pada Sektor Informal Perdagangan Dan Jasa di Kota Ambon. sentralisasi, 5(2), 1. https://doi.org/10.33506/sl.v5i2.54
Firda, V. V., & Amar, S. (2019). Pengaruh Tingkat Pendidikan, Investasi, Dan Tingkat Upah Terhadap Angkatan Kerja Yang Aktif Bekerja di Indonesia. Jurnal Ecogen, 1(3), 691. https://doi.org/10.24036/jmpe.v1i3.5115
Hafiz, E. A., Haviz, M., & Haryatiningsih, R. (2021). Pengaruh PDRB, UMK, IPM terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Kabupaten/Kota Jawa Barat 2010-2020. Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 1(1), 55. https://doi.org/10.29313/jrieb.v1i1.174
Harsoyo, A., & Sulistyaningrum, E. (2018). Pengaruh Fertilitas Terhadap Partisipasi Tenaga Kerja Perempuan. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 130. https://doi.org/10.24843/jekt.2018.v11.i02.p01
Hasanah, F., & Kamal, M. (2022). Faktor Determinan Perolehan Surplus (Defisit) Underwriting Dana Tabarru’ Pada Asuransi Jiwa Syariah. JURNAL AKUNTANSI DAN KEUANGAN ISLAM, 10(1), 55. https://doi.org/10.35836/jakis.v10i1.305
Hawariyuni, W., & Andrasari, M. (2022). Role of Investment and Macroeconomic Variables on Unemployment in Indonesia. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 11(3), 321. https://doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v11i3.52016
Hidayat, A. R., Alifah, N., & Rodiansjah, A. A. (2023). Kontribusi Digitalisasi Bisnis Dalam Menyokong Pemulihan Ekonomi dan Mengurangi Tingkat Pengangguran di Indonesia. Syntax Idea, 5(9), 1259. https://doi.org/10.46799/syntax-idea.v5i9.2559
Karo, R. U. K., Daffa, D. S., & Hidayat, N. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh Ipm, Ump Dan Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja Terhadap Pengangguran Terbuka Di Indonesia. Journal of Social and Economics Research, 5(2), 451. https://doi.org/10.54783/jser.v5i2.113
Katz, L. F. (1986). Efficiency Wage Theories: A Partial Evaluation. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1, 235. https://doi.org/10.1086/654025
Khafidzin, A., & Istifadah, N. (2020). Transformasi Struktural di Jawa Timur : Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sektoral terhadap Kemiskinan. Media Trend, 15(2), 275. https://doi.org/10.21107/mediatrend.v15i2.6789
Kurniasari, D. (2021). Partisipasi Dan Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Muslimah Di Sektor Informal dalam Mendukung Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Yang Berkelanjutan. Komitmen Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 2(1), 75. https://doi.org/10.15575/jim.v2i1.12517
Levine, D. I., Belman, D., Charness, G., Groshen, E. L., & O’Shaughnessy, K. C. (2002). How New is the “New Employment Contract?” Evidence from North American Pay Practices. https://doi.org/10.17848/9780585470283
Mahendra, K. Y., Susilawati, M., & Suciptawati, N. L. P. (2021). Memodelkan tingkat pengangguran terbuka di Indonesia. E-Jurnal Matematika, 10(1), 20. https://doi.org/10.24843/mtk.2021.v10.i01.p315
Manek, M., & Badrudin, R. (2017). Pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah dan Dana Perimbangan terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Kemiskinan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur. Telaah Bisnis, 17(2). https://doi.org/10.35917/tb.v17i2.49
Marini, L., & Putri, N. T. (2020). PELUANG TERJADINYA PENGANGGURAN DI PROVINSI BENGKULU : SEBERAPA BESAR? Convergence The Journal of Economic Development, 1(2), 70. https://doi.org/10.33369/convergence-jep.v1i2.10900
Maryati, S., Handra, H., & Muslim, I. (2021). Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Menuju Era Bonus Demografi di Sumatra Barat. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 21(1), 95. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.2021.07
Nabila, N., & Rozaini, N. (2022). Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Upah Minimum Kota (Umk) Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Kota Padang Sidempuan. Niagawan, 11(3), 224. https://doi.org/10.24114/niaga.v11i3.36635
Palahudin, Ariyansyah, Firmansyah, F., Pratama, N. W., Widyasari, R. P., & Gorat, R. (2024). Hubungan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dengan Pengangguran di Sumatera Utara dan Gorontalo Periode 2018-2022. Karimah Tauhid., 3(6), 6619. https://doi.org/10.30997/karimahtauhid.v3i6.13610
Pamuji, A., Setiawan, E. P., & Munir, A. M. (2024). Regresi Data Panel dalam Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Tahun 2017-2021. Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics, 6(2), 162. https://doi.org/10.13057/ijas.v6i2.80010
Pangestu, Y. A. G. (2022). Analysis Performance of Tax Effort and Privilege Funds Influencing Economy of Special Region of Yogyakarta in 2014-2019. Jejak (Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan)/Jejak, 15(1), 221. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v15i1.38586
Pardita, D. P. Y., Arjawa, I. G. W., & Setena, I. M. (2023). ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DISPARITIES IN BALI. Eurasia Economics & Business, 72(6), 3. https://doi.org/10.18551/econeurasia.2023-06.01
Prawira, S. (2018). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Upah Minimum Provinsi, Dan Tingkat Pendidikan Terhadap Pengangguran Terbuka di Indonesia. Jurnal Ecogen, 1(4), 162. https://doi.org/10.24036/jmpe.v1i1.4735
Putri, E. I. K., Setyowati, E., & Rosyadi, I. (2022). Pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto (PDRB), Upah Minimum Kota/ Kabupaten (UMK), dan Indeks Perkembangan Manusia (IPM) Terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2016-2019. EKONOMIS Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2), 651. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v6i2.594
Rahayu, Y. (2019). Pengaruh Upah Minimum Provinsi Dan Pdrb Terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Provinsi Jambi. Journal Development, 7(2), 174. https://doi.org/10.53978/jd.v7i2.143
Rahmawati, F., & Hidayah, Z. M. (2020). Menelusur Relasi Indeks Pembangunan Gender Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. EcceS (Economics Social and Development Studies), 7(1), 110. https://doi.org/10.24252/ecc.v7i1.13919
Rahmi, J., & Riyanto, R. (2022). Dampak Upah Minimum Terhadap Produktivitas Tenaga Kerja: Studi Kasus Industri Manufaktur Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Publik, 13(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.22212/jekp.v13i1.2095
Rassanjani, S., Novialdi, R., Saribulan, N., & Dahlawi, D. (2023). Overcoming the threat of poverty and social welfare amid the COVID-19 pandemic through sustainable funding sources. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan Dan Pembangunan Daerah, 10(6), 337. https://doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v10i6.18017
Rochmani, T. S., Purwaningsih, Y., & Suryantoro, A. (2017). Analisis Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Sektor Industri di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 16(2). https://doi.org/10.20961/jiep.v16i2.2322
Sari, R. J., & Setyowati, E. (2022). Analysis of the Influence of the Number of Population, Wages, And HDI on Open Unemployment Rate in Central Java, 2016-2020. Procedia of Social Sciences and Humanities, 3, 1. https://doi.org/10.21070/pssh.v3i.196
Sasongko, G., Artanti, N., Huruta, A. D., & Lee, C.-W. (2020). Reexamination of Okun’s law: Empirical analysis from Panel Granger Causality. Industrija, 48(4), 63. https://doi.org/10.5937/industrija48-29455
Satrio, R. B., Hidayat, A. K., & Hayati, A. (2023). The Impact of Transjakarta Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Operationalization on Economic Growth and Unemployment Rate in DKI Jakarta Province. Quantitative Economics and Management Studies, 4(2), 261. https://doi.org/10.35877/454ri.qems1522
Sembiring, V. B. P., & Sasongko, G. (2019). Pengaruh Produk Domestik Regional Bruto, Inflasi, Upah Minimum, dan Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Pengangguran di Indonesia Periode 2011 – 2017. International Journal of Social Science and Business, 3(4), 430. https://doi.org/10.23887/ijssb.v3i4.21505
Senasi, V., Halim, S. K., & Parasuraman, B. (2021). Minimum Wage Policy: Is There Any Impact on Low Skilled Workers in Electrical and Electronics Companies in Malaysia? International Journal of Business and Society, 22(1), 422. https://doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.3186.2021
Septiyanto, W. G., & Tusianti, E. (2020). Analisis Spasial Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Provinsi Jawa Barat. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 9(2), 119. https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v9i2.40
Siregar, R. T., Silitonga, H. P., Lubis, K., & Sudirman, A. (2020). The Impact of GRDP and RWP on Regional Minimum Wage. Jejak (Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan)/Jejak, 13(2), 292. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v13i2.23398
Sulistiyanti, Nursiswati, A., Joesoef, J. R., & Ariyani, F. (2023). Analysis Of Changes Sensitivity in Sectoral Employment Opportunities to Economic Growth and Minimum Wages. Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 139(7), 63. https://doi.org/10.18551/rjoas.2023-07.08
Supandi, E. D., Yulianti, R., & Fauzy, A. (2022). Regresi Data Panel untuk Mengetahui Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi IPM di Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi DIY. STATISTIKA Journal of Theoretical Statistics and Its Applications, 22(2), 157. https://doi.org/10.29313/statistika.v22i2.1122
Suryono, I. L., Warsida, R. Y., Maryani, M., Rita, R., & Yani, R. A. A. (2022). Efektivitas Balai Latihan Kerja Komunitas dalam Meningkatkan Kualitas Tenaga Kerja. Jurnal Ketenagakerjaan, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.47198/naker.v17i1.125
Susanto, E., Rochaida, E., & Ulfah, Y. (2018). Pengaruh inflasi dan pendidikan terhadap pengangguran dan kemiskinan. INOVASI, 13(1), 19. https://doi.org/10.29264/jinv.v13i1.2435
Syamiya, E. N., Latuconsina, H., Murdy, K., & Rahmah, A. (2023). Pengaruh Upah Minimum, Tingkat Pendidikan dan Literasi Digital Terhadap Pengangguran. Jurnal Ecogen, 6(4), 495. https://doi.org/10.24036/jmpe.v6i4.15528
Thahir, M. I., Semmaila, B., & Arfah, A. (2021). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Pendidikan Dan Kesehatan Terhadap Kemiskinan di Kabupaten Takalar. Journal of Management Science (JMS), 2(1), 61. https://doi.org/10.52103/jms.v2i1.323
Tridiana, C., & Widyawati, D. (2018). Dampak Upah Minimum terhadap Probabilitas Keluar dari Sektor Formal. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 18(3), 119. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.2018.19
Umar, A. U. A. A., Lorenza, L., Savitri, A. S. N., Widayanti, H., & Mustofa, M. T. L. (2020). Pengaruh Inflasi, PDRB, dan UMK Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2017-2019. Balance Jurnal Ekonomi, 16(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.26618/jeb.v16i1.3292
Wangge, Y. B. R., & Anggrismono, A. (2024). Analisis Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja pada Sektor Usaha Mikro Kecil dan Menengah (UMKM) di Kabupaten Sleman. Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi, 7(1), 520. https://doi.org/10.31004/jutin.v7i1.25920
Wardiansyah, M., Yulmardi, Y., & Bahri, Z. (2017). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat pengangguran (Studi kasus provinsi-provinsi se-Sumatera). E-Jurnal Ekonomi Sumberdaya Dan Lingkungan, 5(1), 13. https://doi.org/10.22437/jels.v5i1.3924
Widjajanto, T., & Agus, I. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Investasi dan PDRB Terhadap Peyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2018. Sosio E-Kons, 12(1), 89. https://doi.org/10.30998/sosioekons.v12i1.5846
Wihastuti, L., & Rahmatullah, H. (2018). Upah Minimum Provinsi (UMP) dan Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Pulau Jawa. Jurnal Gama Societa, 1(1), 96. https://doi.org/10.22146/jgs.34054
Winarto, H., Zumaeroh, Z., & Retnowati, D. S. (2022). Pengaruh Human Capital, Upah Minimum dan Angkatan Kerja terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sektor Industri Pengolahan di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. EKONOMIS Journal of Economics and Business, 6(1), 190. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v6i1.500
Wulandari, I. G. A. A. (2023). The Covid-19 Pandemic Impact on Tourism Business in Kuta Beach Bali: A Naturalistic Qualitative Study. International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality in Asia Pasific, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.32535/ijthap.v6i1.2192
Yasa, I. N. M., Budhi, M. K. S., Irwansyah, M. R., Mahaendrayasa, M. S. A., & Narmaditya, B. S. (2023). Disparity of Income Distribution Between Regencies/Cities in Bali Province of Indonesia. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 8(7). https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i7.2815
Yuninda, B. V., & Rahayu, A. (2024). Determinan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Pulau Jawa Tahun 2012-2021. Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 7(2), 48. https://doi.org/10.33005/jdep.v7i2.465
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Dewa Putu Yudi Pardita, Putri Desika Ayu , I Made Sara
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
The author(s) retain copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a CC BY-SA 4.0 license that allows others to remix, adapt, and build upon the work even for commercial purposes, as long as they credit the author(s) and license their new creations under the identical terms.
License details: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
