Perdagangan dan pertumbuhan di RCEP: Ekspor vs impor terhadap produk domestik bruto
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53088/jerps.v5i3.2039Keywords:
Exports, Imports, Gross Domestic Product, RCEP, International TradeAbstract
This study examines the effects of exports and imports on gross domestic product (GDP) in six member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) over 2013–2022. Using secondary data from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), the analysis applies panel data regression to test the significance of trade variables for economic output. The results show that exports have a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP. This pattern is consistent with stronger global demand following the post-2008 recovery and the COVID-19 rebound, alongside a shift toward higher-value-added exports and improved export capacity, supported by strategic industrial policies and commodity downstreaming. In contrast, imports show a negative, though statistically insignificant, relationship with GDP. This weak import–GDP linkage is due to the dominance of consumer goods and processed oil and gas imports, limitations in domestic infrastructure and technological capacity, dependence on raw commodity exports, and the suboptimal orientation of trade policy.
References
Adepoju, A. A., Ogundunmade, T. P., & Adebayo, K. B. (2017). Regression methods in the presence of heteroscedasticity and outliers. Academia Journal of Scientific Research 5(2): 776-783. https://doi.org/10.15413/ajr.2018.0128
Affandi, A., & Gunawan, E. (2018). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor Dan Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Pdb Indonesia Tahun 1969-2016. Jurnal Perspektif Ekonomi Darussalam (Darussalam Journal of Economic Perspec, 4(2)), 249–264.
Afolabi, B., Danladi, J. D., & Azeez, M. I. (2017). International trade and economic growth in Nigeria. Global Journal of Human-Social Science: Economics, 17(5), 28-39.
Ahmad, D., Afzal, M., & Khan, U. G. (2017). Impact of exports on economic growth empirical evidence of Pakistan. International Journal of Applied Economic Studies, 5(2),1-9.
Ahmed, M., Hunjra, A. I., Iqbal, M. K. & Khalil, J.. (2014). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Imports, Exports of Goods and Services on Economic Growth of Pakistan. Bulletin of Business and Economics, 3(3), 155–165.
Alhazimi, R. (2020). The Effect of Foreign Debt, Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Imports on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries in 2000-2017 (Before and After The Great Recession of 2008). Journal of Applied Economics in Developing Countries, 5(1), 41-47. https://doi.org/10.20961/jaedc.v5i1.53444
Ali, A. A., Sheikh Ali, A. Y., & Dalmar, M. S. (2018). The Impact of Imports and Exports Performance on the Economic Growth of Somalia. Canadian Center of Science and Education, 10(1), 110-119. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n1p110
Ali, A., Fatima, N., Ali, B. J. A. R., & Husain, F. (2023). Imports, Exports and Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-A Relational Variability Analysis. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 18(6), 1681–1690. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.180604
Anwar, A., Mifrahi, M. N., & Kusairee, M. A. B. Z. A. (2024). International trade and economic growth in ASEAN. Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 109–115. https://doi.org/10.20885/JKEK.vol3.iss1.art14
Asian Development Bank. (2022). The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement: A New Paradigm in Asian Regional Cooperation?. Asian Development Bank Institute. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS220172-2
Bakari, S., & Mabrouki, M. (2017). Impact of exports and imports on economic growth: New evidence from Panama. Journal of Smart Economic Growth, 2(1), 67–79.
Basuki, A. T., & Prawoto, N. (2021). Analisis Data Panel dalam Penelitian Ekonomi dan Bisnis (Dilengkapi dengan Penggunaan Eviews). PT Rajagrafindo Persada.
Blanchard, O., & Johnson, D. R. (2022). Macroeconomics (8th ed.). Pearson Education.
Estrades, C., Maliszewska, M., Osorio-Rodarte, I., & e Pereira, M. S. (2023). Estimating the economic impacts of the regional comprehensive economic partnership. Asia and the Global Economy, 3(2). 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aglobe.2023.100060
Haryati, S. N., & Hidayat, P. (2014). Analisis kausalitas antara ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di ASEAN plus three. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan, 2(6),336-352.
Haseeb, M., Hartani, N. H., Abu Bakar, N., Azam, M., & Hassan, S. (2014). Exports, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Malaysia (1971-2013). American Journal of Applied Sciences, 11(6), 1010–1015. http://dx.doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2014.1010.1015
Istiqomah, R., & Faridatussalam, S. R. (2023). Analysis of the Effect of Labor Force, Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, and Export of Goods and Services on Gross Domestic Product in 6 ASEAN Countries. Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity), 1178–1188. https://doi.org/10.23917/iseth.4119
Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2018). International Economics: Theory and Policy (11th ed.). Pearson Education.
Kurniawan, R. (2015). Determining the Effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Export, and External Debt on Gross Domestic Product in Selected ASEAN Country Periodic 2000-2014. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB, 4(2). 1-15.
Kusuma, H., Sheilla, F. P., & Malik, N. (2020). Analisis pengaruh ekspor dan impor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (Studi perbandingan Indonesia dan Thailand). Jurnal Optimum, 10(2), 140–152.
Mankiw, N. G. (2021). Principles of economics. Cengage Learning.
Milliardo, L. (2017). Faktor Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Produk Domestik Bruto Negara-Negara Asean Periode 2005-2014. Ekonomi Dan Bisnis: Berkala Publikasi Gagasan Konseptual, Hasil Penelitian, Kajian, Dan Terapan Teori, 22(1), 23–29. https://doi.org/10.24123/jeb.v22i1.1643
Mohsen, A. S. (2015). Effects of exports and imports on the economic growth of Syria. Euro-Asian Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(4), 253–261.
Mpojota, A. (2024). The Impact of Exports and Imports on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Dynamics. Rural Planning Journal, 26(2), 151–164.
Nguyen, H. H. (2020). Impact of foreign direct investment and international trade on economic growth: Empirical study in Vietnam. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(3), 323–331. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no3.323
Noor, S. I. M. (2018). Impact of Export, Import and Growth: Evidence Using Econometric Analysis in Malaysia. International Journal of Accounting, Finance, and Business, 3(16), 12–19.
Ocampo, L. V. G., Gumban, R. B., & Dc, J. A. T. D. P. (2021). Impact of Export and Import on 40 years Economic Growth in the Philippines. Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education, 12(3), 5607–5613.
Park, C.-Y., Petri, P. A., & Plummer, M. G. (2021). The economics of conflict and cooperation in the Asia-pacific: RCEP, CPTPP and the US-China trade war. East Asian Economic Review, 25(3), 233–272. https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2021.25.3.397
Pico, N. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor dan Impor terhadap Pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara ASEAN tahun 2013-2017. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi JIE, 4(3), 500–507. https://doi.org/10.22219/jie.v4i3.12760
Prasetyo, R. D., & Utomo, Y. P. (2024). ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DI-8 NEGARA ASEAN PADA TAHUN 2018-2022. Jurnal Menara Ekonomi: Penelitian Dan Kajian Ilmiah Bidang Ekonomi, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.31869/me.v10i1.5717
Raghutla, C., & Chittedi, K. R. (2020). Is there an export‐or import‐led growth in emerging countries? A case of BRICS countries. Journal of Public Affairs, 20(3). https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2074
Rodrik, D. (2016). Premature deindustrialization. Journal of Economic Growth, 21, 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-015-9122-3
Salvatore, D. (2014). Ekonomi Internasional (9th ed.). Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Sheilla, F. P., & Malik, N. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia dan Thailand. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi JIE, 4(3), 455–470. https://doi.org/10.22219/jie.v4i3.12697
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic Development. London: Pearson Education.
Tomayahu, N. A., Kumaat, R. J., & Mandeij, D. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, PDB Tiongkok, dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Di Indonesia (2000-2019). Jurnal EMBA: Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.35794/emba.v9i1.32987
Triyawan, A., & Afifah, A. N. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Ekspor dan Impor terhadap GDP di Negara Belgia. Jurnal Ilmiah Universitas Batanghari Jambi, 23(1), 19–23. https://doi.org/10.33087/JIUBJ.V23I1.2514
Ulya, Z. (2022). The Influence of Export, Import and Population Values on The Gross Domestik Product of ASEAN Countries Period 2000-2009. El-Jizya: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam, 10(2), 217–232. https://doi.org/10.24090/ej.v10i2.7060
Velaj, E., & Bezhani, E. (2022). The Impact of Import and Export to GDP Growth–The Case of Albania. Review of Economics and Finance, 20, 791–796. https://doi.org/10.55365/1923.x2022.20.89
World Integrated Trade Solution. (2025). Exports of Goods and Services by Country, in Constant 2010 US$ 1988-2022. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/country/by-country/startyear/LTST/endyear/LTST/indicator/NE-EXP-GNFS-KD
World Integrated Trade Solution. (2025). Gross Domestic Product by Country, in Constant 2010 US$ 2010,2022. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/BY-COUNTRY/StartYear/2010/EndYear/2022/Indicator/NY-GDP-MKTP-KD
World Integrated Trade Solution. (2025). Imports of Goods and Services by Country, in Constant 2010 US$ 1988-2022. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/BY-COUNTRY/StartYear/1988/EndYear/2022/Indicator/NE-IMP-GNFS-KD
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Faisha Aprilia Riskiyah Aisyi, Windhu Putra
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
The author(s) retain copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a CC BY-SA 4.0 license that allows others to remix, adapt, and build upon the work even for commercial purposes, as long as they credit the author(s) and license their new creations under the identical terms.
License details: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
