Hubungan kausal antara nilai tukar, suku bunga, dan inflasi di negara anggota BRICS+
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53088/jerps.v6i2.3330Keywords:
Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Inflation, BRICS Group, Panel VARAbstract
This study analyses the bidirectional causal relationship between exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation rates in the 10 BRICS+ member countries from 2015 to 2025. This study uses secondary data and a quantitative approach employing the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) method. The results indicate no unidirectional or bidirectional causal relationship between exchange rates and interest rates; the Granger causality test shows that exchange rates do not affect interest rates, nor do interest rates affect exchange rates. The Granger causality test indicates a one-way causal relationship between the exchange rate and inflation: only inflation affects the exchange rate, while the exchange rate does not affect inflation. Similarly, for the relationship between interest rates and inflation, the Granger causality results show a unidirectional relationship: interest rates influence inflation, and both the exchange rate and interest rates simultaneously influence inflation. These findings show that the PVAR-GMM model can still produce valid, informative estimates when applied to countries with diverse macroeconomic characteristics, such as the BRICS+ member states.
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