Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies

Determination of macroeconomic factors on Indonesia's oil and gas imports: an ECM approach

2025-06-30T12:31:39+07:00

The oil and gas trade deficit can negatively impact Indonesia’s economy in the long term, highlighting the need to identify key factors influencing oil and gas imports. This study analyzes the effects of inflation, exchange rates, and foreign exchange reserves on oil and gas imports using the Error Correction Model (ECM), which captures both short-term and long-term dynamics. Monthly data from January 2003 to December 2023 were used, with a natural logarithm transformation applied to address non-stationarity. The results show that, in the long term, inflation and foreign exchange reserves significantly and positively affect oil and gas imports, while the exchange rate has a significant negative effect. In the short term, these variables show no significant impact except for the error correction term (ECT), which is negative and significant—indicating a gradual adjustment toward long-term equilibrium. The findings support policy efforts focused on maintaining price stability, exchange rate management, and adequate foreign exchange reserves to ensure a more sustainable oil and gas trade balance.

Analisis masalah yang dihadapi pelaku UMKM di Kabupaten Klaten

2025-06-30T12:31:37+07:00

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) play a crucial role in the economic development and growth of communities. This study aims to analyze the primary challenges faced by business operators in Klaten Regency across the aspects of production, marketing, and financing. The research employs a quantitative descriptive method, utilizing primary data collected from 30 business operators through questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions, and observations. The majority of business operators are women, with an average age of 43 years, and they operate primarily in the culinary sector. The research findings indicate that the main challenges faced include limited marketing opportunities, restricted access to capital, and difficulties in obtaining adequate raw materials and production facilities. The implementation of digital marketing strategies remains minimal, hindering market expansion, and access to business financing is also limited. To address these issues, it is recommended to provide digital marketing training, ease access to microfinance, provide shared production facilities, and ensure the availability of raw materials. These efforts are expected to enhance the competitiveness and sustainability of SMEs in the face of the digital economy’s development and promote local economic growth.

Hubungan indeks pembangunan manusia dan pengangguran dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah di Provinsi Lampung

2025-08-13T20:35:59+07:00

The goal of this study is to examine the relationship between the HDI and unemployment rates, and the GDP growth rate in Lampung Province from 2020 to 2024. This quantitative study integrates cross-sectional data from 15 cities and districts in Lampung Province with time-series data spanning five years. The CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics) was consulted for the data retrieval. The Fixed Effect Model (FEM) was chosen as the best estimating model after the Chow and Hausman tests proved its appropriateness. The results indicate that the Human Development Index has a positive impact on regional economic growth. In contrast, unemployment has little bearing on Lampung Province's economic growth. The findings suggest that healthcare and education reforms have the potential to increase productivity and drive regional economic growth. Additionally, although it is not the primary factor, the combined effect of the Human Development Index and unemployment rates has a significant influence on the economic growth of Lampung Province.

Tourism sector and regional own-source revenue: A panel data analysis of six provinces in Java Island, Indonesia

2025-08-13T20:36:00+07:00

This study aimed to analyze the influence of the tourism sector on Regional Original Revenue (PAD) in six provinces on Java Island from 2019 to 2023. The independent variables included the number of hotels, the number of restaurants, and the number of tourism workers, while the dependent variable was Regional Original Revenue (PAD). A quantitative approach was applied using panel data regression. Based on the Chow and Hausman tests, the Fixed Effect Model was selected as the most appropriate. The results showed that the number of hotels had a negative and significant effect on regional revenue, while the number of restaurants had no significant effect. Conversely, the number of tourism workers had a positive and significant impact. These findings indicated that hotels without effective management and optimal occupancy levels may hinder their contribution to regional income. At the same time, the tourism labor sector played a key role in enhancing revenue. This study offered strategic input for local governments in formulating sustainable tourism development policies aimed at strengthening regional income.

Evaluasi proyek pengembangan start-up wedding organizer berbasis kemitraan dan kebijakan ekonomi kreatif model countenance stake

2025-08-13T20:35:57+07:00

The limited systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of partnership-based projects in supporting creative economy policies poses a challenge in developing sustainable entrepreneurship models. This study aims to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of partnership-based Wedding Organizer start-up development projects in supporting national creative economy policies. The evaluation was conducted using Stake's Countenance Model, which includes three main components: antecedents, transactions, and outcomes. The research instrument was developed based on three layers of theory: Grand Theory, Middle Range Theory, and Applied Theory. It was then validated using Aiken's V approach and tested for reliability using Cronbach's Alpha. The study's results indicate that the program has a positive impact on increasing the entrepreneurial capacity of participants, enhancing the effectiveness of partnership-based training, and promoting business sustainability. The program also successfully established a broad business network, directly contributing to local economic growth. These findings provide new insights into the effectiveness of evaluating partnership models within the creative economy ecosystem. This evaluation model can be replicated and adapted for similar programs in other creative sectors to support community-based development policies.

Analisis Indeks Pasar Saham Global terhadap ISSI: Studi pada DJIA, Nikkei 225, dan SSEC dengan Pendekatan Error Correction Model

2025-08-13T20:35:55+07:00

This study aims to analyze the influence of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nikkei 225, and Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) indices on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) in both the long and short term, spanning the period from January 2015 to December 2024. This study utilizes secondary data and employs a quantitative approach, utilizing the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The results indicate that, in the long term, the DJIA and SSEC have a significant negative impact on the ISSI. In contrast, the Nikkei 225 has a significant positive impact on the ISSI. In the short term, the DJIA has a significant positive impact on the ISSI, while the Nikkei 225 and SSEC have no significant impact on the ISSI. The results of this study indicate that the Nikkei 225 index influences the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) in the long term and the DJIA index in the short term. These findings underscore the importance of considering global market dynamics, particularly in Japan and the United States, as a reference for making Sharia investment decisions in Indonesia to anticipate fluctuations and capitalize on market growth opportunities.

Peran penggunaan fintech dan e-commerce dalam menunjang perkembangan UMKM

2025-08-13T20:35:49+07:00

The use of digital technology such as fintech and e-commerce is growing and provides various conveniences for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in managing businesses. The increasing use of digital technology has a significant impact on the way MSMEs access financial services, market products, and reach consumers more broadly. The use of fintech can help MSME players manage financial transactions efficiently, while e-commerce opens up wider marketing opportunities without being limited to one region. The research was conducted to determine the effect of the use of fintech and e-commerce on the development of MSMEs. The study used a causal associative research type, with a quantitative approach. The number of samples used was 54 MSME players who work in Marimar. Data collection techniques were carried out by distributing questionnaires, while data analysis used multiple linear regression analysis techniques. Based on the results of the study, it is found that there is a partial and significant influence between the use of fintech and e-commerce on the development of MSMEs. The use of fintech and e-commerce simultaneously has a significant effect on MSME development variables.

Pemetaan konseptual peran agroforestri dalam pertanian berkelanjutan dan ekonomi sirkular

2025-08-13T20:35:51+07:00

Global challenges related to food security, environmental degradation, and resource constraints drive the need for innovation in agricultural systems. Conventional agricultural models often overlook ecological balance and resource efficiency, resulting in long-term negative impacts. This study aims to map the conceptual role of agroforestry in supporting sustainable agriculture and the circular economy. This study employs a qualitative approach, utilising a systematic literature review method. The results of the study indicate that agroforestry functions as a key link that integrates ecological, social, and economic aspects in agricultural systems. Agroforestry enhances soil health and fertility by increasing organic matter content, promoting nitrogen fixation, and reducing soil erosion, while optimising resource use through circular economy principles, such as the utilisation of organic waste and closed production cycles. The synergy between agroforestry, sustainable agriculture, and circular economy produces an environmentally friendly, productive, and socially and economically sustainable production model. Thus, agroforestry is a key strategy for addressing the challenges of future agricultural development, supporting food security, environmental conservation, and enhancing community welfare holistically.

Keterkaitan jumlah wisatawan mancanegara, tingkat hunian hotel, PDRB, dan pendapatan asli daerah: Bukti dari Provinsi Kalimantan Barat

2025-08-13T20:35:53+07:00

Tourism is a rapidly developing industry in many countries. Tourism is a sector with the potential to drive the development of the national and regional economy, and it is also one of the key sectors contributing to the increase in PAD. West Kalimantan Province has tourism potential that needs to be explored, enabling the regional economy to develop rapidly. Using quantitative descriptive methods, analyzed with panel data regression. The results of this study indicate that the variables of the number of foreign tourists and hotel occupancy rates have a positive, yet insignificant, effect on regional original income. In contrast, the variable of gross regional domestic product has a positive and significant effect on regional original income. Simultaneously, the variables of the number of foreign tourists, hotel occupancy rates, and gross regional domestic product have a positive and significant effect on regional original income in West Kalimantan Province from 2014 to 2023. These findings can be used to support the formulation of regional economic policies related to the important role of the tourism sector in efforts to increase local revenue (PAD).

Studi fenomenologi: Pengalaman pengelolaan keuangan keluarga kelas menengah di Kelurahan Petung Kabupaten Penajam Paser Utara

2025-08-13T20:35:47+07:00

Financial management within families is crucial for maintaining household economic stability, particularly for middle-class families. Financial management within families is a skill that every family must possess, as failing to manage their finances effectively can result in expenses exceeding their income. Therefore, this study aims to interpret each action from the experiences of middle-class families in managing household finances and to identify and analyse the main challenges faced as well as the strategies implemented by middle-class families in Petung Village in financial management. The research design employed is qualitative, with a phenomenological approach, utilising data collection methods that include interviews and observations. The data analysis stages used are data condensation, data presentation, conclusion drawing, and verification. Based on the findings regarding middle-class families in Petung Village, it was revealed that their understanding of financial management is already quite good, and they can adapt to changes in the economic situation. Although some families do not regularly record their income and expenses, overall, family financial management is functioning smoothly. However, it is hoped that middle-class families in Petung Village can improve their financial management through the guidelines set by the Financial Services Authority (OJK)

Determinasi sosial ekonomi terhadap kemiskinan di Jawa Timur: Analisis data panel menggunakan fixed effect model

2025-08-13T20:35:44+07:00

Poverty is one of the main challenges facing East Java, as it is the most densely populated region in Indonesia. This study aims to investigate the impact of social and economic variables, including life expectancy, population size, gross domestic product per capita, human development index, labour force participation rate, and minimum wage, on the poverty rate in East Java Province from 2021 to 2023. This research employs a quantitative method to collect panel data from 38 districts/cities, analysed using a panel data regression model with the Fixed Effects Model (FEM). The results indicate that Life Expectancy, Population Size, and GDP per capita have a negative and significant impact on poverty, meaning that increases in these three variables can reduce poverty levels. Meanwhile, the Human Development Index, Labour Force Participation Rate, and Minimum Wage have a positive but insignificant impact, suggesting that these factors are not yet effective in reducing poverty. These findings indicate that health development policies, management of the productive-age population, and inclusive economic growth have a greater impact on poverty alleviation than increases in the minimum wage or HDI. The government should focus on data-driven interventions, such as health programs and workforce training, and ensure the equitable distribution of development benefits.

Dinamika Islamic Human Development Index, ketenagakerjaan, dan kemiskinan: Peran pertumbuhan ekonomi di Kabupaten Kebumen

2025-08-14T10:42:27+07:00

The purpose of this research is to examine the influence of the Islamic Human Development Index (I-HDI), Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), and Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) on poverty in Kebumen Regency during the period 2014-2024, with economic growth as a mediating variable. A quantitative approach was applied in this research. The analytical methods employed are path analysis and the Sobel test, utilising secondary data from official publications of the Central Statistics Agency, specifically those of the Kebumen District and the Central Java Province. The results show that the I-HDI has a significant positive impact on economic growth, while the LFPR has no significant impact; however, the OUR indicates a significant negative impact on economic growth. Furthermore, I-HDI was proven to have a positive and significant effect on poverty. In contrast, LFPR, OUR, and economic growth showed a significant adverse effect on poverty. In terms of indirect effects, economic growth was found to be effective in mediating the impact of I-HDI on poverty, but not in mediating the effects of LFPR and OUR on poverty.

Bidirectional relationships between inflation and key monetary indicators in Indonesia: Exploring short- and long-run dynamics

2025-08-15T11:53:50+07:00

This study aims to analyse the effect of money supply, rupiah exchange rate, and interest rate (BI Rate) on inflation, and vice versa, in Indonesia from 2016 to 2024, with a total of 100 observations. The method employed is a quantitative approach utilizing Vector Autoregression/Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VECM) analysis techniques to identify both short-term and long-term effects. The results of the study indicate that the money supply and inflation do not significantly influence each other in either the short or long term. The exchange rate has a negative and significant influence on inflation in the long term. In contrast, the interest rate shows a positive and significant influence on inflation only in the long term. The results of the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD) analyses confirm that the exchange rate is the most effective variable in explaining variations in inflation. In contrast, the roles of money supply and interest rates are relatively low. These findings indicate the importance of exchange rate stabilization as the primary strategy in controlling inflation in Indonesia.

Pengaruh lama usaha, modal usaha dan inovasi terhadap pendapatan UMKM kuliner di Kecamatan Medan Sunggal

2025-08-19T16:25:53+07:00

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are productive businesses managed by individuals or sole proprietorships with a certain amount of capital. With strategies created by MSME actors, these businesses can compete more effectively to become more competitive in their market. This study aims to analyze the influence of Business Duration, Business Capital, and Innovation on the Income of Culinary MSMEs. The study focuses on MSMEs in Medan Sunggal District, with a selected population of 326 culinary business operators in the Medan Sunggal area and a sample size of 77 respondents. The study utilizes primary and secondary data, employing data collection techniques that include interviews, observations, and the distribution of questionnaires to respondents/MSME operators. The data analysis technique employed was multiple linear regression. The results of the study indicate that, to some extent, the business capital variable significantly influences the income of culinary SMEs in Medan Sunggal District. However, the business duration and innovation variables do not significantly influence the income of SMEs in Medan Sunggal District.

Bridging the digital gap: Impact of digital marketing training on women-led MSMEs in Klaten

2025-08-19T21:17:15+07:00

Digital inequality continues to limit women entrepreneurs in rural and semi-urban areas from fully participating in the digital economy. Strengthening digital marketing literacy is essential to improve their business competitiveness and market access. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a digital marketing training in improving the digital marketing literacy of women-led micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Klaten, Central Java. A one-group pretest-posttest pre-experimental design was employed with 35 participants selected through purposive sampling. The training intervention was delivered in a one-day session and measured through two key indicators: understanding of digital marketing concepts and responsible use of social media. Each indicator consisted of Likert-scale questions administered before and after the training. The results showed a clear improvement in participants’ knowledge and skills across both indicators, with higher mean scores recorded after the training. These findings suggest that even short-format, context-driven digital training can enhance both conceptual and ethical digital marketing literacy among women entrepreneurs. The study provides insights into the feasibility of replicating such interventions in other community-based empowerment programs for female MSMEs.

Interrelationship of economic growth, poverty dynamics, and revenue generation in indonesia’s regional fiscal autonomy

2025-08-20T09:56:09+07:00

This study examines the dynamic relationship between regional own-source revenue, economic growth, and poverty within the framework of Indonesia’s decentralized governance. Using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to address potential endogeneity, the analysis draws on panel data covering all provinces over a recent multi-year period. The findings indicate that stronger economic growth tends to be followed by improvements in the ability of local governments to raise revenue, while higher poverty levels are associated with weaker fiscal performance. The results also point to a degree of persistence in revenue patterns from one period to the next. Model diagnostics support the reliability of the estimates. These insights underline the importance of policies that encourage sustainable economic expansion and targeted poverty alleviation as key measures to strengthen regional fiscal autonomy. The study contributes to the literature on fiscal decentralization and offers practical recommendations to enhance subnational revenue performance in developing economies.

Peran regulasi hukum bisnis dalam mendorong kepatuhan usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah (UMKM): Review jurnal sistematis

2025-08-21T02:12:36+07:00

Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are a vital driver of Indonesia’s economy, yet their legal compliance level remains low due to regulatory complexity, limited tax literacy, and technological constraints. This study aims to systematically review the role of business law regulations in promoting MSME compliance, with the objective of identifying influencing factors, research gaps, and policy development directions. Using a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) approach, 27 peer-reviewed journal articles published between 2013 and 2023 were analyzed. The selection process followed inclusion and exclusion criteria, and reporting adhered to the PRISMA flow diagram to ensure systematic and valid results. The findings reveal that regulatory clarity, ease of licensing, tax education, digital infrastructure, and government support programs are key factors influencing MSME compliance. However, challenges such as inconsistent policy implementation and limited access to legal resources persist. The study concludes that comprehensive, accessible, and technology-driven regulatory frameworks are essential to improving compliance levels, thereby enhancing the sustainability and competitiveness of MSMEs in Indonesia.